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Week 1 Preview
- Bart
- Sep 9, 2021
- 5 min read
Let’s gooooooo!
Today is the last day we can all legitimately say we have equal shots at the Players Cup. After tomorrow night, anyone with a Buc or Cowboy that scores well will have a statistical advantage (however slight).
Apparently I was like 52-32 in predictions last year… nowhere near as good as JWWs historical win %, but hey, not too shabby 😉
Later this week I’ll try to see if the first DFFL 20 Power Rankings were close to end of season rankings… but at least we’ll have a data point for 2021.
On with the guesswork…
Sleeper info current as of 9:00pm US EST Wednesday, 8 Sep.
Sleeper projection: KED wins 223 to 221
Everyone is already calling this the game of the week… and we may consider it bigger than that by the end of the season. KED has been a consistent (and sometimes quiet) force in DFFL, but they’re looking to break out this year. NUT is looking to overcome a brutal welcome to the league and injuries to some key players last year… some of which still linger. With basically a dead heat prediction, this matchup comes down to a bunch of ifs and maybes. That said… I’ll boil it down to two things. NUT needs Stafford to ball out for his Rams debut (and for CMC and Saquon to not tear a critical ligament. If that happens, then KED needs Aiyuk and Kittle to go big at Detroit. So which is more likely? I don’t really know. I see high probability of each happening… but I don’t know that I love the idea of relying on Jimmy G on the road (even against the Lions). So even though I like KED to win the league this year, I’ll give the slight nod to NUT to win this big one. NUT by 2… which he’ll get from Waller on MNF in the 4th quarter.
Sleeper projection: MTT wins 203 to 198.
So from the game of the week with the highest projected combined score, I now flip the script to cover the not game of the week with (one of) the lowest combined score projections (hard to tell with what TIU might do with their lineup). Hey, RAF has nowhere to go but up… just maybe not very far up. I can’t put my finger on one thing to say why I think MTT will be facing an uphill battle this year… but there’s just too many uncertainties for me in the current lineup. I think MTT should swing big on a couple of trades… or… swing big on future investment and give up 3-4 good assets to secure 1-2 great ones plus draft picks. But I digress. For this matchup… the winner will be the one that doesn’t mess up the sit/start decisions more than the other guy. Since RAF is apparently cursed by such decisions, then the nod goes to MTT to win this one by 6 (after a furious comeback attempt from RAFs Ravens on MNF).
Sleeper projection: DNF wins 230 to *195 (TIU points estimate based on projected starting lineup)
DNF is projected really high… like too high. Rodgers, Henry, A Jones, and Taylor are all projected to have big games… yes, each is very capable… I just don’t know that they’ll all actually reach those projections this week… so expect one of them to underperform (and I think I’m gonna take on an anti-Aaron Rodgers tone this year, for various reasons… so I’ll cheer for Rodgers to suck). Still… DNF is gonna score pretty high. TIU has a lot of solid talent… too much of a good thing can be bad though if you have to make weekly matchup decisions because you don’t have enough standouts. For that reason, I figure TIU will have too many points on the bench, and DNF wins by about 15.
Sleeper projection: JWW wins 223 to 211.
I may jinx JWW… but I don’t know if they’ve ever had a below .500 record in DFFL… so if nothing else, that possible stat could be on the line, and UGG would be tickled pink to be the one to ruin it (I’ve put eyes on the DFFL historical data, so I know there’s a way to check this… but it’s late as I’m writing this, and I don’t want to spend the time to figure it out… that, and I don’t want to be wrong 😎). Ima get this one over with quick. UGG is relying on a couple of has beens and a couple of maybes. The only maybe that helps UGG is the one for the next UGG / JWW matchup where maybe JWW will be suffering from lack of depth from injuries or bye weeks… but not this week. JWW wins by 25.
Sleeper projection: CAB wins 214 to 205.
The DFFL 29 champ and current owner of The Players Cup may seem to be gettin no respect… but this is kinda their M.O. They don’t bludgeon opponents… they just kinda find ways to win. They could win this one… and someone ranked higher will lose… and next week CAB would have a little more respect. Rinse and repeat more weeks than not, and look to see CAB in the top 4 eventually… probably. A bit of emphasis on the probably there, because my biggest concern is that after Mahomes, Cook, and Ridley… is it just me, or is the rest of CAB kinda meh? If one of those big 3 gets hurt, then….
Anyhow… as for PTS… interesting decision to make between Winston or Herbert… but I’m more interested to see how Mostert, Pitts, and J Rob perform. I think those guys may surprise a bit and leave CAB hoping for good points from his kicker on MNF. I have talked myself into the upset… was gonna pick CAB by 5, but now I’ll flip it and say PTS by 5.
Sleeper projection: TMW wins 213 to 194.
I saved this one for last, mainly because I wanna highlight a sneaky early pick to make the DFFL championship… TMW. They probably will need to make a trade or two along the way, but with Kyler Murray, Tyreek Hill, Allen, Cooper, and Lamb as an out-freaking-standing core group… with nice compliments from Gaskin (who I’m personally high on this year) Butler and the 49ers DEF… this team will be tough every week it’s not facing a bye week + tough matchup crunch. Also… look for AJ Dillon to produce some sneaky good value (eventually). Anyhow… just wanted to put TMW on everyone’s radar. All of that said… if it weren’t for the Ekeler injury, KAK would be putting up a good fight here… potentially at least. Hurts, Jacobs, Evans, and Hockensen will make things interesting… in weeks to come. TMW wins by 20. KAK may need to trade away one of those good QBs to get a final piece to get them in the mix.
~Co-comm
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